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预估偏差法集合化台风路径概率预报
作者:刘莹1?2??潘毅1?2??陈永平1?2??袁杰颖1?2?
单位:1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210098;
2. 河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏 南京 210098
关键词:集合化预报?预估偏差?控制路径?扰动路径?概率分析?
分类号:P457.8
出版年·卷·期(页码):2019·36·第三期(18-23)
摘要:
基于2012-2016年发生在西北太平洋我国24 h警戒线内的所有台风资料,在预估偏差台风控制路径预报结果的基础上,统计台风控制路径预报位置与实测位置之间的预报距离误差,得到台风落入概率相对于无量纲预报误差的经验分布公式。进一步的,分偏快、偏慢、偏左、偏右对各偏离方向分别建立偏台风落入概率相对于无量纲预报误差的经验分布公式。使用该方法对2017年全年的台风进行后报,并比较落入概率预报结果与实际落入概率之间的误差,结果证明二者有较好的一致性。
A probability prediction method for possible location of typhoon tracks is provided in this paper. Based on all typhoon forecast data within the 24-hour warning line over the Northwestern Pacific during 2012-2016 and introduction of the error-estimation ensemble forecast method, the distance error between forecast and measured position of typhoon track during forecast period is calculated. The total probability distribution of typhoon errors that fall within error probability circle can be obtained, and the empirical formula is established. Furthermore, the empirical formula of deviation probability distribution is set up to further refine the probability of different deviation directions, which is fast, slow, left and right. A hindcast ofr typhoons in 2017 is conducted using the probability prediction method. It is found that the error between probability forecast results and actual deviation probability shows significant consistency.
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